I'm sure most of you don't watch tropical updates for hurricane activity, but if you lived along the Gulf of Mexico, you probably would. I'm starting this thread just to show the thought process and how much lead time you have to take action. This might point out the inaccuracies in guesstimation of where these things are headed. They are largely influenced by weather patterns and anthing more than a few days out is subject to change. So everything in the "cone" is fair game at this point. You may have noticed oil prices are already ratcheting up in anticipation of it shutting down oil rigs in the Gulf.

This is the present track. Everything in white is a possibility and this this far out leaves for a lot of guess work. If I lived in New Orleans, I would be pretty nervous. While I wouldn't start loading up the car just yet, I'd start lining things up.



But then here are other computer models with different ideas of where this is headed. The above is the National Weather Service's data. Perhaps New Orleans isn't the target. At least two of these models put it closer to me. Round and round it goes, where it stops.....

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Cajun,

I ran my generator a couple of hrs last weekend just to give it some exercise and ensure it was in good working order. If storm stays on current path, I'll give the generator an oil change and fill up all my gas cans (and ATV tanks and boat tank) this weekend. We're at the end of the energy company's extension cord, thus we lose power every time it gets a little cloudy.
The wife just left the house 10 min ago headed to New Orleans to start up a new plant for the next couple of weeks. I told her to high-tail it back home ASAP if the threat gets serious...gotta beat that I-10 contra flow!

Yep, always keeping an eye on the Tropics. We're still recovering here from T.S. Fay. We got 20+ inches of rain out of that one, south of us got 25+. If t decides to come in closer to the Fl.- Al. line we could see the crap that spawns off the right side, like heavy rains and tornados. If it goes your way good luck and we'll keep y'all in our thoughts and prayers. Stay safe.

I just looked at Accuweather and their saying Texas and Louisiana. I think I'd almost rather a root canal than crawling at a snails pace in the contra flow. That could get interesting with the LSU game this weekend Baton Rouge. Should it hit New Orleans, they'll never recover.

I heard about the massive amounts of rainfall y'all got in Florida. The remnants of Fay made if over this way last weekend. Well we'll just have to wait and see where it decides to go.

Anyone else living along the Gulf Coast join in on your thought process and preparations as things develop.

The forecasters are watching the Bermuda high very closely. If it coninues to hug Florida, then the storm will stay on a more westerly path...into Texas. If the high shifts eastward, as currently predicted, then the storm will curve around the high into the northern gulf.
It's a pure guessing game at this point.

New Orleans Considers Evacuations

I plan to update these the same time each day. As you can see the current projected path by the National Weather Service has shift it west. It was a little further west this morning, which if it followed that path, I would take a direct hit. This path takes it pretty close to geauxtiger.



Here are the computer models. What's disturbing here is they are getting tighter.



Still 5 days out, things can change. It's reported that there are no hotel rooms available in Louisiana, except those closer to the coast no doubt. State and local officials are meeting this afternoon to see what they're going to do. I would expect to see evacuations starting tomorrow if the forecast hold true.

Here's where the delima comes in. Where do you go at this point? North may be the best track because they lose strength as they move inland. So if there are no hotel or motels in north Louisiana where do you go? Arkansas, Missouri? I don't think I'm going anywhere.

My wife might go to Houston to stay with our daughter. It's not so much the storm she fears, it's the loss of power we experienced during Lili in 2002. Four days in the sweltering humid heat makes life pretty miserable. At least I don't expect to be cutting up any trees without the ability to cool down. I had all my big ones taken out in 2003, but you never know.

The wife just called. She just went to fill up and the station was just about empty. That's another thing you do in preparation of a hurricane. Without electricity, you can't pump gas. I'm going to try and top my tank off this evening.

This is an interesting post Cajun,
What struck me is this would be about the same planning we would go through with a blizzard warning. A few days notice, watch it to see how its building, fuel in vehicles and generator ready to go (especially for the rural folks) and plenty of groceries on hand. Gets to be a way of life in areas like parts of WY.

THX Cajun for the updates.... Here we go Again.... and soon we will have an influx of Democrats to where I live....

I started this to show how unpredictable these systems can be. Just my luck they'll get it right. To be honest, I don't take a lot of stock beyond 2 days out. If it does come here it could make for a more interesting read. I talked to my Dad a few minutes ago. He and my sister have been in CO for the last month. Saturday, I may have to go with him and my brothers to bring boats, appliances and furniture back from his camp in Cypremort Point. He had 5' of water in his camp for Rita in 2005. No one expected the storm surge we got for that storm.

We don't worry a lot about groceries. If the power is off long enough, we throw a big barbeque.